Iran Comes To The Table

In an interesting and surprising turn of events, Iran has agreed to sit down with US negotiators to discuss the situation in Iraq. While the US claims that the talks will be limited to Iraqi security, the Washington Post is reporting that Iran is hopeful the talks will turn into a more comprehensive document. Iran, as the primary Shiite power in the Islamic world, may be able to play an important role -- either helpful or harmful -- in the domestic situation in Iraq, which has already caused Iraqi Sunnis to denounce the plan.

Why the change? A few things come to mind. First, as Thomas Friedman points out (rr) in today's New York Times, while Iran has a lot to lose from either a US success in or retreat from Iraq, it seems as if a US failure followed by a collapse and civil war in Iraq is a nightmare scenario for Iran.

Second, perhaps the National Security Strategy issued by President Bush yesterday has had its effect. Even though nation-building in Iraq is far from complete or successful, even the limited steps toward democracy that have occurred are a big threat to Iran. And let's not forget that the military part of the Iraq invasion was a HUGE success. Iran knows that if the US turns its military might loose, the mullah regime stands no chance (again, this says nothing about the likelihood of succeeding in the after-war phase; only that the Iranian regime would prefer not to be deposed). With US troops now stationed on Iran's borders in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran cannot ignore the warnings and threats of preventive/pre-emptive war contained in the NSS.

All of this is not to say that Iran is about to give up its nuclear program or welcome democracy with open arms. But even getting Iran to the table is a step forward.

UPDATE: Here's a perfect example of why Iran is worried about what goes in Iraq.