Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Can Lebanon Deal with Hezbollah?

My friends over at Truth on the Market have an excellent post about the recent offer from the Lebanese government to send 15,000 troops into southern Lebanon to restrain Hezbollah so that a cease-fire might be put into place, allowing Israel to withdraw.

Here's the analysis:

If it’s true that the Lebanese army is able to handle Hezbollah, then why didn’t it disarm Hezbollah before the current conflict began? And if the Lebanese army really can’t handle Hezbollah, then isn’t the current offer to use the army basically worthless?

Whatever the Lebanese army’s capabilities really are, it seems hard to fault Israel for its skepticism about the Lebanese offer and for insisting on dealing with Hezbollah itself and not withdrawing until a multinational force is in place.

As I note in a comment on TOTM:

The question isn’t “why didn’t Lebanon do this before?” It is “why should Israel trust Lebanon to do it now.” Lebanon always had sufficient numbers of troops to deploy to southern Lebanon for the purpose of confronting and reining in Hezbollah. But would those troops, once deployed, have been capable of carrying out such a mission? Unlikely. And that hasn’t changed. Lebanon is, unsurprisingly, trying to get Israeli forces out of the country, and will say and do just about anything to accomplish that goal. But just because Lebanon offers doesn’t mean the Lebanese Army is up to the task. So, Keith is exactly right when he writes “it seems hard to fault Israel for its skepticism about the Lebanese offer and for insisting on dealing with Hezbollah itself and not withdrawing until a multinational force is in place.”


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