In my classes here at UPS, I've been discussing the implications of the destruction of the Askariya shrine and the possibility of an inter-sectarian civil war in Iraq. I've always been slightly optimistic about the likelihood of success in Iraq (like 55% hopeful or so), but the bombing really undermined that slight margin of confidence. The only thing that kept me hopeful was the possibility that fear of civil war might force the Sunnis -- who would likely lose against the Shiite and Kurdish militias -- to fully enter the political process and turn against the al-Qaeda/foreign jihadists.
Now, there are signs that this may be in fact happening. According to several top Sunni political leaders and officials, the Sunnis are ready to return to the discussion table to consider forming the new Iraqi government. Several conditions were mentioned, including the return of Sunni mosques occupied by Shiite militias, but nothing that seems unreasonable or impossible. Hopefully, from the ashes of the Golden Dome can rise the hope of a new Iraq.
Monday, February 27, 2006
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My hope is that coming this close to the brink of all-out war will remind the Sunnis that their need to be involved in the new government is absolutely imperative. The "Cuban Missile Crisis" of Sunni-Shi'a relations, you might say.
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